Investment strategy: focus on the third-generation semiconductor materials and IGBT industry chain
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原标题：【招商策略】关注第三代半导体材料与IGBT产业链——科技前沿及新产业观察周报 来源： 招商策略研究 2月13日，在小米10发布会上，小米正式发布了GaN充电器, GaN charger has more advantages in charging power conversion than the same power (non-GaN) charger, its charger is smaller, only half the size of the traditional charger, priced at 149 yuan.
In fact, as early as last October when OPPO released the Reno series of new products Reno Ace and OPPO K5, a 65W gallium nitride super flash charger was launched.
It is reported that gallium nitride fast charge will also be introduced in 2020, using a self-developed controller, and comes standard with mobile phones (computers).
We believe that the third generation of semiconductor materials has successfully entered the field of consumer electronics, and consumer electronics brands will quickly follow up. The industry chain will open up a lot of market space and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant investment opportunities.
In addition, as the new generation of semiconductor materials is being accelerated and new energy vehicles are opening up the market, the new generation of IGBTs will accelerate their development. It is recommended to pay attention to the IGBT industry chain.
核心观点 【本周重点关注——关注第三代半导体材料与IGBT产业链】 半导体原料共经历了三个发展阶段：第一阶段是以硅（Si）、锗（Ge）为代表的第一代Semiconductor materials; the second stage is represented by gallium arsenide (GaAs), indium phosphide (InP) and other compounds; the third stage is gallium nitride (GaN), silicon carbide (SiC), zinc selenide (ZnSe)Mainly broadband semiconductor materials.
Gallium nitride (GaN) is a typical representative of the third generation of semiconductor materials. French research institute Yole predicts that the market size of gallium nitride radio frequency devices will reach 1.3 billion US dollars by 2023, with a compound growth rate of 22.
With the rise of the third generation of semiconductor materials, IGBTs based on new materials will also stand on the historical stage.
New energy vehicles, one of the main application areas of IGBT, have also opened up the market, and the future has huge space.
We believe that the development of silicon carbide-based IGBTs will accelerate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the third-generation semiconductor materials and the IGBT industry chain.
[Other technology hotspot tracking]New generation of semiconductors: Researcher Ou Xin from Shanghai Institute of Microsystems and Information Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Professor Han Genquan from Hao Yue’s Group, Xidian University have made new progress in the field of gallium oxide power devices.
New energy vehicles and Tesla industry chain: Tesla resumes delivery of domestically produced Model 3 in Shanghai plant, with a weekly output of 3,000 units; media said that Tesla applied for production of a long-life model 3 in China, which is expected to reach 660 kilometers;Economy Minister Altmaier said the European Union has approved higher subsidies for electric cars in Germany, and Tesla’s German super factory may receive state subsidies.
Agricultural machinery: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has accelerated the development of the mechanization of animal husbandry, and strives to achieve an overall mechanization rate of more than 50% by 2025.
Intelligent driving: Recently, the world-renowned testing, inspection and certification company TüV Rheinland has issued an ISO 26262 functional safety management certification to the MDC intelligent driving computing platform.
[Global technology industry stock index trend]On January 12, Fed Chairman Powell reiterated his confidence in the prospects of the US economy when he attended a hearing of the Senate Banking Committee.
Powell said that the current US economy continues to expand, the unemployment rate is at a historically low level, wages are increasing, and employment opportunities are increasing.
On January 13, the United States released January CPI data for two years.
5%, compared with 0.
1%, better than expected.
Affected by this, except for the FTSE 100 and Nikkei 225 indexes, most global stock markets rose.
Due to the gradual improvement of China’s new crown epidemic and continued easing monetary policy, last week A shares continued their upward trend.
[Global key technology company tracking]Facebook: Facebook acquires startup Scape Technologies.
The latter specializes in AI positioning technology and is committed to developing positioning accuracy beyond GPS capabilities.
T-Mobile: T-Mobile US’s acquisition of Sprint has been approved by the U.S. Federal District Court, with a transaction value of up to $ 26.5 billion.
The combined new company will surpass AT & T and become the second largest telecommunications operator in the United States.
: According to Reuters, U.S. prosecutors added allegations of trade secret theft in a targeted bank fraud case on Thursday, further intensifying the US struggle with.
[Science and Technology Board Enterprise Tracking]This week, no new science and technology board enterprises have completed registration and announced their issuance arrangements.
[Risk warning]The individual stocks mentioned in this report only indicate that they have certain relevance to related topics and do not constitute investment recommendations for individual stocks.
目 录 01 科技前沿及新产业观察 1、本周重点跟踪关注：关注第三代半导体材料与IGBT产业链 事件：2月13日，在小米10发布会上，小米正式发布了GaN充电器，GaN充电The charger has more advantages in charging power conversion than the same-power (non-GaN) charger. Its charger is smaller in size, only half the size of a traditional charger, and costs 149 yuan.
In fact, as early as last October when OPPO released the Reno series of new products Reno Ace and OPPO K5, a 65W gallium nitride super flash charger was launched.
It is reported that gallium nitride fast charge will also be introduced in 2020, using a self-developed controller, and comes standard with mobile phones (computers).
We believe that the third generation of semiconductor materials has successfully entered the field of consumer electronics, and consumer electronics giants will quickly follow up. The industrial chain opens a huge amount of market space and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant investment opportunities.
Semiconductor raw materials have gone through three development stages: the first stage is the first generation of semiconductor materials represented by silicon (Si) and germanium (Ge); the second stage is gallium arsenide (GaAs), indium phosphide (InP) And other compounds; the third stage is mainly broadband semiconductor materials such as gallium nitride (GaN), silicon carbide (SiC), zinc selenide (ZnSe).
Gallium nitride (GaN) is a typical representative of third-generation semiconductor materials. Compared to first- and second-generation semiconductor materials, third-generation semiconductor materials can withstand higher voltages, are suitable for higher frequencies, and can achieve higher levels.Power density, and has the characteristics of high temperature resistance, corrosion resistance, radiation resistance, large band gap, etc., has a wide range of applications in high-frequency, high-power power electronics, microwave radio frequency and other fields.
French research institute Yole predicts that the market size of GaN RF devices will reach 1.3 billion US dollars by 2023, with a compound growth rate of 22.
9%. Silicon Carbide (SiC) is widely used in power conversion devices such as AC and DC converters due to its excellent performance under high temperature, high pressure, and high frequency conditions.
At present, silicon carbide (SiC) is still in the early stages of development in high-end market areas, such as smart grids, new energy vehicles, and military electronic systems.
New energy vehicles are the main growth point of SiC power devices. According to CASA calculations, the average penetration rate of SiC devices in electric vehicle charging piles has reached 10%. In 2018, the market size of SiC power electronic devices for the entire DC charging piles was approximately 1.
3 billion, more than double the number in 2017.
According to IHS forecasts, by 2025, the global silicon carbide power semiconductor market is expected to reach $ 3 billion.
With the rise of the third generation of semiconductor materials, the development of IGBTs based on new materials will also accelerate.
IGBT (Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor) is a new type of power electronic device. It is a core component in the field of industrial control and automation. It can be adjusted according to signal instructions in industrial devices.Voltage, current, frequency, phase difference, etc. in the circuit to achieve the purpose of accurate subdivision.
Therefore, IGBT is known as the “CPU” in the power electronics industry. It is widely subdivided into industries, 4C (communications, computers, consumer electronics, automotive electronics), aerospace, defense and military and other traditional industries, as well as rail transportation, new energy,Strategic emerging industries such as smart grids and new energy vehicles.
At present, the public generally believes that traditional silicon-based IGBTs have approached the limit of material characteristics, and the third-generation semiconductor material silicon carbide is a better material for manufacturing IGBTs.
On February 4, Star Semiconductor, the eighth largest IGBT module supplier in the world, was listed on A shares.
The company’s main business is the design, development and production of IGBT’s main power semiconductor chips and modules, and external sales in the form of IGBT modules.
The company’s independent research and development of IGBT chips and fast recovery diode chips is one of the company’s core competitiveness, which means another progress in domestic substitution.
At present, the application of new-generation semiconductor materials is accelerating. New energy vehicles, one of the main application areas of IGBT, have also opened up the market, and the future has huge space.
We believe that the development of silicon carbide-based IGBTs will be accelerated, and it is recommended to pay attention to the IGBT industry chain.
2. Tracking of other technological hotspots 1) Smart city, digital economy-Shanghai: By 2022, it will be the vanguard of a new global smart city. An important hub of the international digital economic network has announced that it will improve the function of the “One Netcom Office” general portal and expand the mobile terminal.The beneficiaries of the bidding will continue to expand various service scenarios and improve the accumulation of government applications.
Focus on medical, education, pension, culture, tourism, sports and other key areas, promote the application of intelligent service inclusive, and continuously improve the sense of gain of the masses.
Implement strong police with science and technology, re-engineer modern police procedures, effectively improve data utilization capabilities, promote the in-depth application of new information technologies in areas such as adult flow monitoring and forecasting, urban security, and crackdown on crime, and create a domestic benchmark for smart police.
Promote the application of IoT sensing, intelligent prediction in the fields of water supply and drainage, gas, and urban construction, and comprehensively improve the ability of urban operation safety and security.
Continue to improve the scale and compatibility of smart grids to meet power transmission needs.
2) Next-generation semiconductors-progress in research on heterogeneous integration of ultra-wide band gap semiconductors Ou Xin’s thesis group of Shanghai Institute of Microsystem and Information Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Han Genquan, professor of Xi’an University of Electronic Science and TechnologyNew progress has been made in the field of power devices.
This is the first paper published by the average (including Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) at the IEDM conference in the field of ultra-wide bandgap semiconductors, and it has also become one of the important innovative countries in the field of gallium oxide research.
It is understood that today, the diamond material replacement technology can not be broken today, this work has gradually important significance in the field of ultra-wide band gap materials and power devices.
(Electronic Engineering Network) 3) New crown-specific drugs-The American Academy of Sciences published a paper that said that Gilead’s experimental drug Remdesivir was targeting MERS-CoV (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus) virus.In antiviral drug tests, animals (monkeys) showed some formation.
Researchers say Redecive may be useful in combating new coronaviruses (Daily Economic News) 4) New energy vehicles, Tesla’s industry chain-Tesla resumes delivery of domestically produced Model 3 at Shanghai plant, with weekly production of up to 3000 models; The media said that Tesla applied for the production of a long-life model 3 in China, which is expected to reach 660 kilometers; German economic minister Altmeyer: the European Union approved higher subsidies for electric vehicles in Germany; Tesla’s German super factory mayGained national supplementary news on February 15. According to foreign media reports, electric vehicle maker Tesla has resumed delivery of the domestically produced Model 3 at its Shanghai plant.
Prior to this, Tesla stopped production and delivery due to the outbreak of the coronavirus pneumonia outbreak.
Although the epidemic is not over, Tesla has begun preparations for delivery of the newly produced Model 3.
So far, Tesla has reported that the current Model 3 car production in Shanghai can reach 3,000 a week.
(Tencent Technology) Reuters quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that Tesla is applying to Chinese regulators to provide a new version of the domestic Tesla Model 3, and the new version will continue to have mileage.
According to official domestic media reports, according to the new version of the domestic Tesla Model 3 notice map obtained from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the car has a curb weight of 1745kg and a motor power of 202kW.
As a result, the car is the long-life rear-wheel drive version of the domestic Model 3.
(Sina) 5) New Crown Vaccine-Zhang Xinmin, Director of the Biological Center of the Ministry of Science and Technology: Part of the New Crown Pneumonia vaccine has reached the animal experimental stage.
The Party Central Committee attaches great importance to the research and development of the new crown pneumonia vaccine.
From the beginning of the establishment of the scientific and technological research group, research and development of vaccines was taken as the top priority, and the nation’s leading units were organized to carry out joint research to accelerate the development of vaccines.
Since New Coronavirus is a new pathogen, vaccine development is relatively short and the cycle is long.
In order to ensure the early success of research and development, in the scientific research emergency project, we have arranged multiple technical routes in parallel, including inactivated vaccines, recombinant protein vaccines, viral vector vaccines, and DNA vaccines in parallel to ensure the success rate.
At the same time, under the framework of the joint prevention and control mechanism, actively coordinate multiple departments, give comprehensive support and support to the vaccine research and development team, make the progress of research and development work gradually, more efficient, and implement wall charts, each work is accurate to the day.
At present, some vaccine varieties have entered the stage of animal experiments, then our country is supported by major national special projects such as the occurrence of major infectious diseases and the creation of major new drugs. In the past 10 years, we have formed capacity building to respond to new emergent diseases.With considerable progress, we have mastered the most advanced technology in vaccine research and development, and have bred a high-level research and development team and vaccine manufacturing enterprises.
At the same time, we also actively advocate international cooperation, but we must realize that as a special product for healthy people, its safety is the first priority.
(Beijing Evening News).
6) Agricultural machinery-The deployment of the Ministry of Rural and Rural Development accelerates the development of mechanization of animal husbandry, and strives to achieve an overall mechanization rate of more than 50% by 2025.The coordinated development of equipment and animal husbandry, focusing on the promotion of major livestock breeding, key production transformation, and mechanization of large-scale farms (households).By 2025, strive to achieve an overall mechanization rate of more than 50% in the animal husbandry industry, and achieve significant achievements in the entire mechanization of major livestock and poultry breeding.
Among them, the mechanization rate of large-scale farming of dairy cows has reached more than 80%, the mechanization rate of large-scale farming 杭州桑拿网 of pigs, laying hens and broilers has reached more than 70%, the mechanization rate of large-scale farming of beef cattle and meat sheep has reached more than 50%, and large-scale farms have basically achieved full-scale mechanization.
A new pattern for the development of animal husbandry in which standardized large-scale breeding and mechanization go hand in hand has basically taken shape, and large-scale breeding of major livestock breeds in areas with conditions has taken the lead to basically realize the full-scale mechanization.
7) Augmented Reality—Chrome 81 is about to usher in WebXR augmented reality support improvements. It is expected that the launch of the upcoming Chrome 81 to the stable channel in mid-March will transform augmented reality (AR) technology and further advance the browser.Developers can take the camera view of the device and place virtual objects correctly on horizontal and vertical surfaces.
In addition to the reconstruction of virtual objects, it can also use enhanced interactions that are quite convenient in the AR world with real object extensions.
Chrome 81 has now entered the beta test phase and is expected to be released to the stable version channel in mid-March.
8) Intelligent driving-MDC intelligent driving computing platform has passed ISO 26262 functional safety management certification. Recently, the world-renowned testing, inspection and certification company TüV Rheinland submitted ISO 26262 functional safety management certification to MDC intelligent driving computing platform.
This standard is one of the entry-level information for global electronic parts suppliers to enter the automotive industry.
MDC is based on self-developed Kunpeng CPU and Shengteng AI processor, and is equipped with self-developed intelligent driving OS.
At present, MDC has joined hands with partners to establish cooperation with 18 mainstream car companies and Tier1, covering a variety of intelligent driving application scenarios such as passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and special operation vehicles.
9) Cloud computing, domestic servers, medical informatization-Dingdang Quick Medicine: server outages caused by a 50-fold increase in the number of users Dingdang Quick Medicine issued a statement saying that the number of users has surged since the epidemic, and the server has been expanded by 30 times, while doing our bestGuarantee the supply of commodities in epidemic situations.
After 9 a.m. on February 12th, due to the distribution of masks, 75% alcohol, disinfectant and other epidemic products in some cities today, users in some areas appeared to have a short-term APP failure, and maintenance has been performed for the first time.
10) Energy Storage—Ministry of Education, National Development and Reform Commission, National Energy Administration issued and issued the “Action Plan for the Development of Energy Storage Technology Specialties (2020-2024)”.Basic theoretical research on batteries, fuel cells, phase change energy storage, hydrogen storage, phase change materials, etc., provides theoretical support for the development of large-scale energy storage systems with high efficiency, size, safety and reliability.
Accelerate research on key technologies such as grid-connected energy storage technologies and systems for renewable energy generation, large-scale integration of energy storage and applications, distributed energy storage technologies and system optimization, and large-scale application and management of energy storage technologies to form a new generation of energy storageTechnology system and promotion and application.
11) New storage—New magnetic storage devices are expected to solve the problem of “out of memory” in AI. US and Italian researchers published a research report in the journal Nature · Electronics on the 10th, stating that they have developed a new type of antiferromagnetic material based onMagnetic storage devices, with their small size and low energy consumption, are likely to help resolve the “out of memory” encountered in the overall development of artificial intelligence.
(Science and Technology Daily) * Note: The individual stocks are listed here only, and do not represent investment advice for individual stocks. For specific individual stock recommendations, please refer to China Merchants Industry Research.
3. Review of key technology hotspots last week 4. Trends in global technology industry stock indexes and company dynamics Federal Reserve Chairman Powell attended the hearing of the Senate Committee of Congress on the 12th and re-confidence in the outlook of the US economy.
Powell said that the current US economy continues to expand, the unemployment rate is at a historically low level, wages have increased year-on-year, and employment opportunities have continued to increase.
On January 13, the United States announced January CPI data, which was 2.
5%, compared with 0.
1%, better than expected.
Affected by this, except for the FTSE 100 and Nikkei 225 indexes, most global stock markets rose.
Due to the gradual improvement of China’s new crown epidemic and continued loose monetary policy stimulus, last week A shares continued to compensate for growth.
Major stock index gains: In addition to the decline in the FTSE 100 and Nikkei 225 indexes last week, other global stock indexes rose, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange led the gains.
Specifically, SZSE refers to 4.
78% led the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, Russia’s RTS, Sao Paulo IBOVESPA, and Germany’s DAX also had relatively high gains, increasing by 3 respectively.
15%, the FTSE 100 and the Nikkei 225 index fell by 0.
(1) The U.S. economy is still strong, and the technology sector is generally up. Economic data released by the United States last week showed that the U.S. economy is operating well. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index in February was initially 100.
9, higher than expected 99.
4; CPI after seasonal adjustment in January, an annual increase of 2.
5%, slightly higher than market expectations2.
In addition, Fed Chairman Powell re-confidence in the outlook of the US economy, and said that if the economy experiences an unexpected downturn, the positive remarks that may adopt QE operations and forward-looking guidance to support the economy have also enhanced market confidence.
Supported by the good fundamentals of the US economy, the technology sector gained ground last week and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index led the gains. Let’s look at the rise and fall of the key US technology industries last week. In addition to the slight decline in the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index, the US technology industry index rose last week, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index led the gains by 3.
In addition, Nasdaq China technology stocks, S & P 500 information technology, S & P 500 communications equipment, and S & P 500 medical each increased by 1.
At 34%, the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index decreased slightly by zero.
(2) The Asia-Pacific region ‘s technology index has risen last week. The Asia-Pacific region ‘s technology index has generally increased, and the stock market rebound has been particularly strong.
Specifically, semiconductors (Shenwan), electronic components (CITIC), and telecommunications (CITIC) have increased exponentially, rising by 12 respectively.
75%; Hang Seng Information Technology, Taiwan Semiconductor, Taiwan Information Technology, and Taiwan Biotech Medical Index increased by 3, respectively.
83%, the Hang Seng Telecommunications Industry Index fell slightly.
(3) Tracking of key global technology companies5. Merchants research: Perspectives on the frontiers of technologyConfirmation is very important research.
Therefore, we have launched a series of “Cloud Track Book” reports, which regularly update and improve the existing cloud industry database, and provide insight into the micro changes of IaaS, PaaS, and SaaS.
This article focuses on IaaS, focusing on the IaaS capital expenditures and transition changes and inflection points of upstream servers.
1. The server is strongly related to IaaS capital expenditure, and Intel DCG corroborates the inflection point.
IaaS vendors are direct customers of server companies. In recent years, the rapid development of the cloud computing industry has also become an important factor in their growth.
From historical data, the growth rate of capital expansion of IaaS vendors and the growth rate of revenue of server companies show an increasing correlation. Therefore, the overall capital expansion of IaaS vendors is of great significance for tracking the marginal changes in upstream server demand.
At the same time, Intel’s data center business (DCG), as the upstream of the server industry, can be used as an important evidence to determine changes in server demand.
2. The growth rate of IaaS capital expenditures at home and abroad in 19Q1-2 has bottomed out one after another and is expected to turn positive soon.
The overall growth rate of domestic IaaS vendors ‘capital expenditure continued to turn negative from 18Q2 until 19Q2 reached its inflection point. The decline in 19Q3 narrowed and the chain increased significantly.
Among them, Tencent’s capital expansion rate turned positive before 19Q3, and the rebound was obvious. We expect the industrial recovery to come.
The growth rate of the overall capital expenditure of overseas IaaS suppliers continued to turn negative from 18Q1 until the bottom point was reached in 19Q1, and the growth rate of each of the 19Q2-4 companies turned positive.
One quarter after the domestic IaaS industry cycle was earlier in foreign countries, the industry as a whole showed a clear state of collective recovery. The average IaaS vendor cloud revenue continued to grow at a high rate, and the inflection point for cloud upstream server demand was approaching.
In addition, Intel’s data center business (DCG) has rebounded sharply for two consecutive quarters from the bottom of 19Q2, directing the server industry to enter the boom upward channel, and IaaS supplier demand is urgent.
3. The turning point of the domestic cloud office catalytic industry is accelerating. It is recommended to pay attention to Inspur Information.
The new crown pneumonia epidemic has caused a surge in demand for telecommuting, catalyzing the release of cloud demand in various industries, and major domestic IaaS vendors have urgently expanded their servers, which will accelerate the arrival of the domestic industry turning point.
In the long run, the domestic IaaS industry is still in an early stage compared to overseas, with a total of 12 in the world.
9%, there is still a lot of room for growth.
We are optimistic about the information of server leader Inspur. Zhongke Shuguang and others continue to benefit from the development of the cloud industry. At the same time, the rapid development of IaaS has also laid a good foundation for the development of application layers such as UFIDA and Jinshan Office.
Risk Warning: The progress of the cloud computing industry is not up to expectations; the time span of the deterioration of the epidemic has exceeded expectations.
(2) China Merchants Computer: The relaxation of refinancing rules is beneficial to computer innovative enterprises. On February 14, the CSRC issued relevant rules related to the adjustment of some terms of the refinancing system of listed companies.Optimize the non-public institutional arrangements, appropriately extend the three aspects of the validity period of the approval, and at the same time moderately relax the restrictions on the scale of non-public offering of stock financing, further expand the non-public offering share of listed companies, and help listed companies fight the epidemic and resume production.
1. The refinancing of listed companies was moderately loosened, and regulatory policy guidance was further clarified.
The main contents of the new refinancing rules are: first, streamlining the issuance conditions and broadening the coverage of GEM refinancing; second, optimizing the non-public institutional arrangements to support listed companies dating strategic investors; third, appropriately extending the validity period of the approvals to facilitate the choice of listed companiesRelease window.The new regulations to be released generally focus on reducing the number of non-publicly issued shares of listed companies. From the specific content: 1) Restrictions on the issuance of GEM companies: Cancel the non-public issuance conditions for 2 consecutive years, and cancel public offerings.The condition that the return on assets at the end of the most recent period is higher than 45%; 2) The number of non-public offering objects, the scale of the issue, and the issue price have been further relaxed: the number of non-public offering objects has been adjusted to not more than 35, and the number of non-public offering shares has been changed fromExceeding 20% of the total share capital before the issuance is adjusted to 30%, and the issue price is not lower than the average price of the company’s stock 20% to 20% before the 20th trading day before the pricing benchmark date;Adjusted from 36 months and 12 months to 18 months and 6 months, once there is no restriction on the reduction of shares to be determined.
2. Facilitate the refinancing of small and medium-sized startups based on technological innovation and improve the layout of related industries.
Due to the rapid development and change of the industry in which science and technology innovation enterprises are located, and human intelligence as the main progress, innovation business often requires a large amount of up-front expenditure before profitability, and the competition pattern has changed relative to the changes in traditional industries.
From the development history of European and American technology giants including Oracle, SAP, Symantec and other companies, we can grind and refinance is definitely an important means for science and technology companies to build competitiveness and become stronger.
It has been three years since the refinancing policy was tightened in February 2017. The scale of financing of small and medium-sized startups based on technological innovation has affected the development of the business to a certain extent.
With the introduction of new financing policy relaxation measures, and gradually incorporating capital market tools and continuous improvement, technology innovation companies are expected to benefit directly.
From the development history of overseas cloud computing and cyber security companies, refinancing is an important driving factor for the rapid expansion of their business. We believe that the introduction of new regulations on refinancing will gradually accelerate the development of internal cloud computing and cyber security listed companies. RelatedThe industrial layout will be further improved.
Investment suggestion: Continue to focus on recommending the “cloud + security” combination: cloud service leader UFIDA, Kingsoft Office, Guanglianda, leading network security vendor Qixingxing, Green Alliance Technology, Nanyang Co., Ltd., convinced.
Risk reminder: The policy support is lower than expected; the core technology development faces major challenges. (3) In the past six quarters when the price of silicon materials was at a low level, the basicchemicals department continued to be interrupted, and the Gunshan factory clearly provided for impairment.
OCI announced that the Gunsan plant’s production capacity will be shifted to the production of electronic-grade temporary products, while reducing the production of Korean solar-grade alternative materials.
Continue to reduce the withdrawal of Korean silicon materials represented by OCI, and reduce the global production capacity by nearly 10%.
At the same time, fierce competition has also led to the rapid withdrawal of domestic silicon materials second- and third-tier companies, and the market share will be concentrated on internal silicon materials leaders such as Tongwei, Daquan and Xinte, especially Tongwei, which will continue to increase production in the near future.
In addition, recently, due to the epidemic, some silicon materials have been transported, and the throughput of South Korea ‘s OCI silicon materials has begun to enter into maintenance (there may be a gradual withdrawal in the future). The overall supply of silicon materials is tight and prices are rising.
Overall, the pattern of the silicon material industry will gradually improve in the next six quarters.
1. Sustained Korean silicon production capacity exit.
Due to the difference between the cost of South Korea’s OCI silicon materials and domestic leaders, and the continuous price of materials after “531” has dropped sharply, its basic chemicals department has continued to decline in the past few quarters, and the Gunsan plant has significantly depreciated.
The OCI announced that after the routine maintenance of the Gunsan plant is completed, the production capacity of some P1 production lines will be switched to the production of electronic-grade alternatives, while reducing the production of Korean solar-grade alternatives.
OCI, Hanwha’s high-temperature material production capacity accounts for about 10% of the world, and has long been an important supplier of domestic single-crystal silicon compacts.
If the South Korean ceiling is expected to continue to withdraw, it will bring an effective supply gap of nearly 10%.
2. During the reshuffle of domestic silicon materials, the second and third lines quickly withdrew.
From 2018 to 2019, the price of silicon materials has fallen sharply. At present, domestic second- and third-tier silicon materials companies have generally changed, and the old production lines of mainstream silicon materials companies are no longer profitable.
In 2019, domestic manufacturers other than the five major manufacturers will replace about 7-8 substitutes. In 2020, this part may fall to the level of 2-3, and the market will further concentrate on large companies.
Domestic competitive enterprises have prominent competitive advantages and resolutely expand production, and the market concentration has accelerated.
Domestic leading companies such as Tongwei, Daquan, and Xinte have obvious cost advantages. In the past two years, large-scale new capacity has been invested in construction, and the comprehensive cost advantage will be further expanded.
In 2019, Tongwei, special changes, Daquan, Zhongneng, and Dongfang hope that the total domestic share will be about 78%, and it may increase to nearly 90% in 2020, especially Tongwei shares, and yesterday announced the expansion plan:It is planned to double the capacity of silicon raw materials to 25 times within 4 years. If the expansion is realized, it will widen the gap with other companies.
3. The price of silicon materials is expected to rise, and the scale will continue to improve in the medium term.
Initially, the short-term materials affected by the transformation of the diamond line have ended, and the growth rate of demand is close to the growth rate of downstream installed capacity. On the supply side, it is expected that the effective supply of silicon materials in the next six quarters will increase very little.
From a static perspective, the current long-term industry profit level has fallen to a low level, and the gross profit margin of Daquan has fallen to a historical average level. WACKER, OCI, REC, EBITA / income have fallen to negative numbers.
Due to the impact of the epidemic situation on the transportation of some silicon materials, South Korea’s OCI silicon material throughput has entered into maintenance (which may be gradually withdrawn in the future), the overall supply is tight, and the price of silicon materials has an upward trend.
Investment advice: Recommend Tongwei shares, TBEA.
Attention: US stocks big new energy, Sanfu (chemical), Hesheng Silicon (chemical).
(4) China Merchants Power New: Yiwei Lithium-Small battery business may reach a higher level. The power sector will usher in the general trend of the Internet of Everything. The battery demand for the Internet of Things is richer and stronger.The battery scale has leapt to the first place in the world, with the most comprehensive battery solutions and excellent rapid customization and response capabilities. The company’s lithium primary battery business may achieve a big leap in the great development of the Internet of Things.
The “Golden Bean” miniature lithium-ion battery cultivated by the company is suitable for wearable and other markets, and has been successfully extended to TWS applications. It is expected to break through in new and more applications in the future.
Overall, the company’s small battery business may reach a higher level.
At the same time, the company’s continuous strategic expansion of the power battery sector in the past 5 years is gradually entering the harvest period.
Maintain the highly recommended level and adjust the target price to 80-85 yuan.
1. “Jindou” batteries have been successfully applied to the TWS field, and the company’s micro batteries are expected to gain more applications in the wearable field.
The company has independently developed the core equipment and products of this type of battery 5 years ago, and has formed a number of complete patent groups.
The company has cut into the supply chain of mainstream overseas TWS headset brands.
Due to the higher production barriers and patent issues of this product, it is expected to have an expected profit return, followed by a strong contribution after the ETC.Today Samsung released the new TWS headset Buds +, which increases the unit price of new products by 20.
$ 99 to $ 149.
At $ 99, the new product lasts 11 hours on a single charge, plus a charging case of 22 hours, an 83% and 69% increase over the previous generation. The new product’s earbud battery capacity is 83mAh, which is an increase of 46 over the previous generation.
6%, while the earbud battery weight has only increased by 5%, and battery performance has improved significantly.
TWS is a successful application of the company’s micro battery in the wearable field, and it is expected to gain more applications in new and diversified applications in the future.
2. Lithium primary batteries will make great strides in the context of the great development of the Internet of Things.
Under the general trend of the Internet of Everything, the power demand in various types of IoT applications may blow up. In the long term, primary lithium batteries and small lithium-ion batteries will be the main power supply methods.
The scale of the company’s lithium primary battery has leapt to the number one in the world, forming a technology, process, and tooling platform. It has the most comprehensive battery solution and excellent rapid customization and response capabilities. The company’s lithium primary battery business may develop in the Internet of Things.To achieve a big leap.
3. The company’s power business began to harvest.
Power battery has always been the company’s largest area in the past 5 years, and it has also had a serious impact and drag on statements.
In the past 5-6 years of development, the company has basically achieved accumulation and improvement from industrial to automotive grades. Soft-pack batteries have successively broken through international customers such as Daimler, Hyundai-Kia, etc., transforming production line optimization and climbing, it is expected that softThe battery pack will gradually start to make money.
At the same time, the company’s iron-lithium batteries not only compete and continue to profit, but also maintain capacity expansion.
It is expected that the power sector is expected to turn losses into profit in 2020 and begin to make positive contributions.
Conclusions and recommendations: The company ‘s lithium primary batteries have global competitiveness, and the domestic consumption of lithium ion decomposition figure is the first echelon in the country. The company ‘s comprehensive power solution capabilities are stronger. Under the trend of “interconnecting everything, wireless, and lithium”, the companyThe small battery will maintain a strong growth, unless it is based on the assumption that the holding e-cigarette company does not grow, the company is estimated to be 28 times in 2020, and it continues to be highly recommended, with an adjusted target price of 80-85 yuan.
Risk reminder: Changes in new tobacco policies, the company’s capacity expansion and customer development are lower than expected.
(5) China Merchants Communication: short-term or long-term?
In-depth analysis of cloud video development opportunities This report believes that the foundation of cloud video development has been consolidated, the development of cloud video is a general trend, and the short-term epidemic is only accelerating the cultivation of user habits. Long-term cloud video addresses the pain points of high traditional video communication costs and narrow coverage.With the advent of great growth opportunities in the cloud video industry, we are optimistic about the long-term development opportunities of the cloud video industry and maintain a “recommended” investment rating.
1. The foundation for the long-term development of cloud video has been consolidated. The epidemic has accelerated the cultivation of user habits and is expected to become the starting point for the accelerated development of cloud video.
With the maturity of the communication network infrastructure and the opening of the 5G era, the development of cloud computing technology and next-generation codec technology, and the popularity of intelligent hardware, the foundation of cloud video development has been consolidated, and the natural defects of hardware video conferencing cannot be adapted to the 5G era.We judge that the development of cloud video is the general trend, and the epidemic has only accelerated the cultivation of user habits. The window for accelerated development of cloud video conference has arrived earlier, and the benchmark SARS has driven the non-linear hardware video conference market into long-term prosperity.In the future, we believe that the epidemic is expected to help accelerate the development of the cloud video industry.
2. There are differences in the competitive environment between China and the United States, and the scaling model is difficult to pass through in China. Cloud video companies can cut through vertical industries through the “cloud (software) + end (hardware)” approach, and finally penetrate into the large customer market.
Everyone in China and the United States has differences in user habits, estimation habits, and competition patterns, and users do not have the mobile video office habit. At the same time, the benefits of pure SaaS products are insufficient. Other Internet giants have participated in the cloud video conference market competition.However, in the vertical industry, there are a lot of budget needs and customized product requirements. It is difficult for the giants to cover all sub-sectors. At the same time, the vertical industry space is integrated. We believe that the opportunity of cloud video enterprise scale lies in the combination of cloud video and vertical industry applications.
3. We believe that companies with high-quality product capabilities, a thorough understanding of subdivided industries, and accurate card positioning, and companies with high-quality sales channels are expected to stand out.
From the perspective of layout and technology, domestic cloud video companies have differed from each other beyond their competitive strength and development foundation.
Although most cloud video companies currently adopt a “cloud + end” layout, there are differences in technical path choices, business models, sales channels, etc. Different cloud video companies have different priorities and choose to subdivide the track instead. We believe that the productCapabilities, business models, sales channels, and vertical industry cards are the core competitiveness of cloud video companies.
Investment suggestion: optimistic about the long-term development opportunities of cloud video.
Key recommendations: Huichang Communications, Yealink Networks, Starnet Ruijie; Suggested attention: 263, Qixin Group.
Risk reminder: 5G construction is less than expected, cloud computing is developing less than expected, and competition in the industry is intensifying. (6) China Merchants Communications: 5G indoor proprietary licenses are officially issued.
3400MHz 5G indoor exclusive shared license to accelerate average 5G deployment and commercial progress.
In the 5G era, indoor application scenarios represented by ultra-high-definition video, AR / VR, intelligent manufacturing, and telemedicine are expected to account for more than 80% of traffic. Indoor network coverage must be prominent, and the scale is expected to increase significantly.
On February 10, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially submitted radio frequency use licenses to three operators, namely China Telecom, China Unicom, and Radio and TV, and agreed to use the three companies nationwide.
The 4GHz frequency band is used for 5G indoor signal coverage, and the 5G system deployment and commercial process are gradually promoted.
1. In the 5G era, multiple solutions will continue to coexist. Digital room division systems are easy to deploy, easy to operate and maintain, efficient, large-capacity, and multi-mode and multi-frequency.
It is estimated that the market size of enterprise-level small base stations is close to 9 billion yuan.
3G / 4G-based indoor coverage technologies are mainly divided into two types: traditional DAS systems and small base station systems.
At present, indoor coverage is still dominated by passive distribution systems, but the passive components of the existing network of the DAS system are not compatible with 5G and the transmission line transmission loss is too large, it is difficult to achieve smoothness to 5G.
We judge that the 5G room will be mainly carried by active digital products. Small base stations are easy to deploy, easy to operate and maintain, efficient, large capacity, and the advantages of multi-mode and multi-frequency will be highlighted in the 5G period.
2. From the perspective of the supply side, traditional small base station manufacturers and main equipment manufacturers have launched new digital room division systems. Both parties have their own advantages and are expected to occupy a place in the 5G small base station market.
At present, domestic small base station products and solutions include traditional small base station manufacturers, main equipment manufacturers, ODM manufacturers, and so on.
Traditional small base station manufacturers (such as Jingxin, 3D, etc.) have been cultivating in the small base station field for many years, and have the advantages of early technology accumulation, customer resources, and brands.
However, in the 4G era, main equipment vendors have also begun to make efforts to include multiple product portfolios to supplement and seize the small base station market.
ODM manufacturers (such as Foxconn, etc.) have not formed a threat due to the lack of core technical capabilities.
It is recommended to focus on the main equipment manufacturers,[Riskanda],[Jinxin Communication](Hong Kong Stocks),[3D Communication].
Investment suggestion: 5G scale construction starts, cloud computing enters the substantive landing stage, 5G applications accelerate development, and the communication sector will be laid out around “one core + three main lines” in 2020.
This week’s key recommendations: Halo New Network, Baoxin Software, StarNet Ruijie, Tianfu Communication, Zhongji Xuchuang, Taichenguang, Haige Communication, Yealink Network, Huichang Communication, China Unicom Suggested attention: Inspur Information, Ziguang Co., Ltd., Fiberhome Communications, Huagong Technology (covered by China Merchants Electronics Group), Xinyisheng, No. 100 Holdings, Dataport, Guangxun Technology, Sega Technology, Mobile Communications, Mobile Communications, Topview Information, 263,Qixin Group (covered by China Merchants Light Industry Group) Risk warning: Sino-US friction escalates, new pneumonia spreads more than expected, 5G investment scale is less than expected, and cloud computing investment growth slows down (7) China Merchants Communications: Zhongji Xuchuang-Proposed acquisition of Chengdu ReserveHan ‘s majority equity, complementing the telecommunications product line, creating a global optical module giant event: The company issued an announcement on February 14th, intending to acquire all or part (finally a large amount of 51%) of Chengdu Chuhan Technology Co., Ltd., the company and Chengdu ChuanHan 29 shareholders (total holding Chengdu Chuhan 56.
0044% shares) signed a framework agreement, and the purchase price is tentatively set at RMB 5.
7.2 billion, all paid in cash.
Before the official transaction documents of this acquisition are signed, if other shareholders of Chengdu Chuhan intend to sell their shares in Chengdu Chuhan to the company, the company will make an acquisition in accordance with relevant terms.
Comments: 1. Chengdu Chuhan has significant advantages in large-scale manufacturing capabilities, which is expected to help Xuchuang become more and more competitive in the telecommunications market. Telecom’s two-wheel drive Xuchuang continues to grow rapidly.
2. Capital spending of North American cloud giants continues to pick up, which is expected to drive the company’s performance back to a fast growth track. 3, the global high-speed optical module leader, 100G and 400G drive performance growth.
North American data centers are still developing at a high speed. The demand for 100G is still growing. The customer demand for high-speed optical modules such as 100G is still growing. At the same time, the demand for new 400G is also increasing. This translates into the continuous digestion of enterprise inventory.With the shift in recovery and the inheritance of 400G to 100G, datacom market demand is expected to continue to pick up.
The number of 100G products of the company remains in the previous rank, and the customer certification and introduction of 400G new products remain the leader. The company is one of the few 400G suppliers recognized by major customers in the world. The barriers of 400G product technology are high. The company has high-quality chip suppliers.Channels, leading research and development teams, strong research and development capabilities, and high-quality 400G products are strengthening their leading positions in the North American and domestic data center markets.
4. 5G optical modules are expected to become a new driving force, bringing new growth points to performance.
In the 5G era, the average speed and number of base station optical modules of operators will increase, and the demand for driving optical modules will increase significantly. It is expected that the construction of 5G base stations will start in 2019. It is expected that the construction peak period (2020) will be 2020-2021.
The company began to deploy 5G base station optical module products in 2015. Currently, there are pre-transmission, mid-transmission, and back-transmission of a full range of 5G base station optical module products.
In terms of 5G front-transmission optical modules, the company has achieved a good share and orders, and has achieved batch delivery. It is expected that the company’s investment volume this year is expected to remain the industry leader.
We believe that the company is facing a breakthrough in the 5G era, and the return to growth of the telecommunications market is expected to become a new driving force for the company.
5. The global leader in high-speed optical modules, benefiting from 5G and 400G two-wheel drive, maintaining the “strongly recommended-A” level.
The company maintains a leading position in the data center market in North America and China. It has high-quality chip supply channels and strong R & D capabilities, transforming the gradual recovery of the digital communication market and the increase in the supply of 400G products. The company’s profitability is expected to gradually increase;In the module market, the company has a comprehensive 5G base station optical module product layout for front, middle, and back. The company is expected to become the main provider of base station optical modules in the 5G era.
If the company’s merger with Chengdu Chuhan is successful, it is expected to significantly increase the company’s competitiveness in the telecommunications optical module market, and further strengthen the company’s competitiveness in global data centers, and it is expected to become a leading company in the data communications and telecommunications markets.
We estimate the company’s net profit for 2019-2021 will be 5 respectively.
1.8 billion, 9.
01 billion, 13.
5.6 billion yuan, corresponding to a PE of 86-20 in 2019-2021.
9X and 33.
1X, maintaining “strongly recommended-A” rating.