CICC Gold (600489): Thickening resources and overlapping assets injected into the gold price upward performance can be expected
Investment Highlights: Event: The company releases its semi-annual report for 2019.
The company achieved operating income of 167 in the first half of 2019.
0.7 million yuan, an increase of 3 in ten years.
75%; net profit attributable to mother is 0.
73 trillion, down 41 a year.
08%, deducting non-attribution net profit 0.
61 ppm, down 43 years ago.
9%; the company’s basic earnings are reduced by 50% to 0.
Gold reserves tend to increase, and resource thickening is expected to be strong: It is reported that the company’s gold metal resource reserves have reached 509 tons, making it the third-largest listed company in the country in terms of gold reserves.
Among them, the gold metal reserves of the company in 2018 and 2019H1 increased by 24 respectively.
6 tons (+ 5%) and 12.
6 tons (+2.
5%), the ongoing performance of the increase in resource reserves.
In addition, as the sole gold resource business platform of the China Gold Group, the company has obtained non-competitive commitments from China Gold.
China Gold Group has a total of 1,907 tons of gold resource reserves and 1022 cathode copper metal reserves, which will provide continuous protection for the company’s subsequent thickening of resources.
The output of main gold products decreased, and the output of copper increased slightly: the company’s 夜来香体验网 main gold product output increased in the first half of the year, of which the output of mineral gold, refined gold and smelted gold was -4.
65% and -13.
66% to 11.
18 tons, 33.
10 tons and 7.
However, copper output increased slightly, and the company’s mineral copper and electrolytic copper each increased by +7.
12% and +1.
62% to 0.
Chapters 938 and 14.
The decline in gold output is related to the company’s mine rectification in response to environmental protection policies, and the increase in copper output benefited from the completion of the second phase of the Zhongyuan Smelter.
H1 Zhongyuan Smelter’s debt-to-equity swap results in the company’s return to its parent’s net profit: Zhongyuan Smelter is an important source of profit for the company, and its contribution to the company’s net profit in 20183.
5.5 billion (second only to Sanxin Gold Copper 3).
900 million profit scale), accounting for 94% of the company’s maximum net profit.
7.6 billion); 2019H1 realized net profit1.
9.5 billion, but the ownership of the company replaces 0.
The high debt ratio of the Central Plains Smelter (87%) caused the company to carry out a debt-to-equity operation and increased minority shareholders’ equity to 60.
98% (the company’s shareholding is expected to be 39.02%).
Excluding this factor, the company realized a net profit of approximately 2 in the first half of the year.
66 trillion, ten years +2.
Multi-asset injection will boost the company’s performance: the company intends to purchase the Central Plains smelter through additional issuance and cash payment.
98% equity and 90% equity of Inner Mongolia Mining.
The Central Plains Smelter already has an annual output of 33.
With a capacity of 8 tons, 360 tons of silver and 35 tons of copper, its net profit in 2019 may be close to 400 million US dollars.
Inner Mongolia Mining has an initial annual production scale of 2475 and 17.
6-year service period, which verified the amount of copper metal 233.
4 Nominal @ 0.
144%, the amount of molybdenum metal is 55.
1 nominal @ 0.
034%, and there are 1,572 tons of associated silver.
Based on 88% copper and 74% molybdenum recovery rates, the mine produces approximately 5 inches of copper per year and 0 per year of molybdenum.
564 tons, with an annual output of nearly 33 silver.
2 tons, can meet July 2019.
4.6 billion net profit performance commitment.
Gold is still in an upward cycle, and the company estimates that there is room for improvement: the average domestic base gold price has been changed from H1’s 287.
7 yuan / gram (+5.
9%) to 297.
3 yuan / gram (+9.
5%), taking into account the continuation of the gold safe-haven premium, liquidity premium and exchange rate premium, and the consistency and continuity of the gold exchange behavior, the price of gold is still in an upward cycle, and the gold price will break through $ 1600 during the year.
As an upstream gold production company, the substantial increase in mineral gold reserves and output will push the company’s estimated space to open.
Profit forecast and investment grade: We estimate that the company’s operating income in 2019-2021 will be 36.8 billion yuan and 389 respectively.
500 million, 397.
7 ppm; EPS is 0.
11 yuan, 0.
13 yuan and 0.
19 yuan, corresponding PE is 90, 72 respectively.
5 and 50.
The first coverage was given a “Recommended” rating.
Risk warning: The price of gold and copper has fallen sharply, the company’s gold output has fallen short of expectations, and additional issuance and acquisition risks.